Big news out of the Show Me State: Christopher “Kit” Bond, senator since 1986, will not be running for re-election in 2010. This contradicts Bond’s statements of even several months ago that he would seek a fifth term.
Previous polls had indicated this would be a competitive race even with Bond running for re-election (R2K recently saw only a 4-point edge for Bond against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). But with an open seat… and with a whole bench full of Carnahans on our side and rather middling pickins on the GOP side… this suddenly moves up next to Florida on the 2010 senate watch list.
We recently discussed possible candidates in the Missouri recruitment thread. (bpfish‘s comment in that diary is pretty comprehensive, and definitely merits a read.) On the Dem side, as previously mentioned, Robin Carnahan probably tops most people’s lists, but her brother, Rep. Russ Carnahan, could just as easily be the one. (The other Dem representatives are Lacy Clay and Emanuel Cleaver, African-Americans representing urban districts who are unlikely to make the jump to statewide, and Ike Skelton, who is in his 70s and unlikely to give up his Armed Services gavel.) Other possibilities include Auditor Susan Montee, and ex-state rep. Judy Baker, who just narrowly lost the House race in the conservative 9th District.
Tons of possibilities on the GOP side, starting with former governor Matt Blunt, who’s young but may need more time than that to rehabilitate his image from his unsuccessful gubernatorial term. Representatives Sam Graves (who won convincingly in a should-have-been-competitive race), Jo Ann Emerson, and Todd Akin may all be eyeing the race. (The other GOP reps are Blaine Luetkemeyer, who’s brand new, and Roy Blunt, who seems to be looking for an exit strategy.)
Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the gubernatorial primary, may also be a possibility, as may be ex-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, although he may have lost the governor’s race by too large a margin to be taken seriously any more. More remote possibilities include former senators Jim Talent and John Ashcroft (yes, John Ashcroft) coming back for another bite at the apple. Last but not least… don’t rule out Brock Olivo. The 9th District was just too small a stage for a mind as expansive as his. (Discussion already underway in txobserver‘s diary.)
Excellent!
given the benches in the two states. For now this is our most likely takeover opportunity with Robin Carnahan the favorite if she jumps in.
Yep….Excellent day.
He’s only a State Senator, but would appear not to mind an uphill primary campaign.
That said, if Russ Carnahan runs then I could see him making another go at MO-3 instead.
Why would she not run? And if she wants to, is there any reason to have a discussion on the democratic side? And please don’t give me that good government – people should work for seats and anyone should have a chance crap. This is a very tough GOP state (hell, McCain won it in ’08 even when the Obama camp invested heavily there).
I do struggle a little bit with dynasties. Our strongest candidates in NY (AG Cuomo), Del (AG Biden), and MO (Sec of State Carnahan) are all sons/daughters and wouldn’t be there if not for their names, but it seems that they’ve proven themselves in their own runs for statewide office, much like Evan Bayh did. And while they had better Rolodexes the day they were born than I will ever have, they still have to work the phone hard to get where they are.
The notable exception to this is AG Humphrey in MN, who even though he won a lot of races easily as AG was a boob who had struggled to string two sentences together throughout his career, and ended up bombing spectacularly in prime time when he lost for Governor in ’98 with 28% of the vote. So my question is this for our MO/DE/NY readers. Are the younger Carnahans, Bidens, and Cuomos strong speakers who project confidence, intelligence and integrity? If so, I’m all for them.
like Baker or others, don’t belong in the top tier.